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BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 31 game
42%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 28 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 24 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 22 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 20 games
55%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 28 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 27 games
70%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 24 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
4nalog · 20 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
785 picks · 358 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 585 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
575 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
487 picks · 316 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
481 picks · 568 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
475 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 753 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Heroic
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:12
OG 48%Heroic 52%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by OG in 33:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciNatsumi
56% · 182 games50% · 426 games
Dragon KnightYuma
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
46% · 325 games48% · 167 games
AxeDavai
Axe
Mars
MarsForce
45% · 246 games44% · 361 game
Queen of PainWisper
Queen of Pain
Jakiro
JakiroSkem
49% · 457 games58% · 225 games
ChenKJ
Chen
Snapfire
SnapfireTims
52% · 312 games52% · 343 games
RingmasterScofield
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed17:13
OG 47%Heroic 53%
The model gave 53% on Heroic — the game was taken by OG in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNatsumi
49% · 403 games53% · 291 game
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
54% · 302 games46% · 306 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeForce
41% · 157 games57% · 223 games
Sand KingWisper
Sand King
Chen
ChenSkem
54% · 189 games51% · 346 games
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Tusk
TuskTims
47% · 388 games49% · 273 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 54%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2