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BLAST Slam V · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 28 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 23 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Shanks · 19 games
58%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 15 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Tino- · 15 games
40%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 31 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 22 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
70%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 18 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 17 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Poloson · 16 games
31%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 15 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
782 picks · 357 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
581 picks · 583 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
574 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
485 picks · 311 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
480 picks · 562 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
474 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
463 picks · 750 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 1112 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:33
Execration 57%Yakult Brothers 43%
The model gave 57% on Execration — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckBob
54% · 313 games54% · 356 games
Abaddonflyfly
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPalos
50% · 344 games49% · 398 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Axe
AxeTino-
44% · 167 games57% · 255 games
Doomzeal
Doom
Tusk
TuskShanks
49% · 417 games48% · 228 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
Snapfire
Snapfirecml
47% · 287 games50% · 291 game
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed20:21
Execration 54%Yakult Brothers 46%
The model gave 54% on Execration — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautPalos
57% · 57 games48% · 178 games
Morphlingflyfly
Morphling
Lycan
LycanTino-
56% · 155 games52% · 160 games
Timbersawzeal
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierBob
45% · 398 games50% · 260 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Batrider
BatriderShanks
48% · 380 games47% · 243 games
Disruptor天命
Disruptor
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
42% · 21 game51% · 170 games
BaneBoBoKa
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 58%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2