BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 23 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 19 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
Execration
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 23 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 19 games
Tusksignature
Shanks · 18 games
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 15 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Shanks · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
783 picks · 357 bans
Disruptor
585 picks · 584 bans
Hoodwink
573 picks · 301 bans
Jakiro
484 picks · 310 bans
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 563 bans
Tusk
473 picks · 268 bans
Mars
462 picks · 752 bans
Puck
437 picks · 1115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:13
Natus Vincere 61%Execration 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursagotthejuice
GyrocopterPalos
Dragon KnightNiku
PangolierTino-
Marspma
SlardarBob
WarlockRiddys
Snapfirecml
BaneZayac
TuskShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 67%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1