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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Tideboundwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 19 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
XinQ · 13 games
46%

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptor
y` · 26 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Echo · 14 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 14 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 13 games
54%
Bane
Bane
y` · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
781 picks · 357 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 583 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
573 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
484 picks · 307 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 562 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
471 picks · 268 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
461 picks · 751 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1113 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head6 – 4
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:23
Xtreme Gaming 56%Team Tidebound 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
50% · 72 games54% · 65 games
Faceless Voidshiro
Faceless Void
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
50% · 188 games40% · 193 games
Queen of PainEcho
Queen of Pain
Tidehunter
TidehunterXxs
58% · 132 games47% · 231 game
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
Snapfirefy
53% · 279 games40% · 136 games
Enchantressy`
Enchantress
Bane
BanexNova
64% · 165 games46% · 211 games
RingmasterpLAnet
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1