BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 35 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 27 games
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
Abaddonsignature
Pure~ · 23 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 23 games
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Tusk
Saksa · 19 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 30 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 28 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 24 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
Snapfire
Daze · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
780 picks · 357 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 583 bans
Hoodwink
571 picks · 300 bans
Jakiro
481 picks · 306 bans
Dragon Knight
476 picks · 561 bans
Tusk
470 picks · 269 bans
Mars
459 picks · 750 bans
Puck
437 picks · 1113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:27
Tundra Esports 70%OG 30%
The model gave 70% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracPure~
AbaddonNatsumi
Pangolierbzm
Queen of PainYopaj
Tidehunter33
Centaur WarrunnerForce
BaneWhitemon
JakiroSkem
HoodwinkAri
MarciTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 80%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1