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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Tearlamentsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 19 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%

Tearlaments

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 17 games
76%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Srf · 13 games
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 12 games
42%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
7e · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Srf · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
779 picks · 357 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 585 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
570 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
479 picks · 302 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 559 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
470 picks · 270 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
458 picks · 748 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 1116 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:26
Natus Vincere 70%Tearlaments 30%
The model gave 70% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
44% · 303 games58% · 349 games
Bristlebackpoyoyo
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNiku
47% · 339 games53% · 298 games
Nature's Prophet7e
Nature's Prophet
Underlord
Underlordpma
34% · 77 games50% · 179 games
TidehunterSrf
Tidehunter
Batrider
BatriderZayac
49% · 328 games54% · 155 games
Bounty HunterTK
Bounty Hunter
Chen
ChenRiddys
61% · 181 game48% · 247 games
Shadow Demonzzq
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 85%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1