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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
OGwin 1:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 30 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 27 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 24 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 21 game
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 20 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 20 games
55%

Natus Vincere

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 19 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
778 picks · 357 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
583 picks · 585 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
568 picks · 300 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
478 picks · 298 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 554 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 270 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
458 picks · 746 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
435 picks · 1115 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:5
OG 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by OG in 36:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYopaj
56% · 286 games53% · 123 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Windranger
WindrangerNatsumi
42% · 142 games45% · 149 games
Queen of PainNiku
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
46% · 124 games55% · 136 games
Marcipma
Marci
Mirana
MiranaSkem
56% · 66 games48% · 302 games
TuskZayac
Tusk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTims
49% · 181 game51% · 89 games
DazzleRiddys
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 55%
Series resultOG 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1