BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 35 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 28 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 27 games
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
Abaddonsignature
Pure~ · 23 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 22 games
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
Bane
Oli · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 16 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 15 games
Jakiro
Poloson · 14 games
Anti-Magesignature
flyfly · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
778 picks · 357 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 585 bans
Hoodwink
568 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
477 picks · 553 bans
Jakiro
477 picks · 298 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 271 bans
Mars
458 picks · 745 bans
Puck
434 picks · 1115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total93% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:8
Tundra Esports 80%Yakult Brothers 20%
The model gave 80% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterPure~
Dawnbreakerzeal
Earthshakerbzm
Abaddonflyfly
Centaur Warrunner33
PuckEmo
TuskWhitemon
MuertaBoBoKa
Shadow DemonAri
Jakiro天命
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 93%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1