BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 1:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 27 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 26 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 24 games
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Pucksignature
4nalog · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 19 games
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Echo · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
Puckoften banned
Echo · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 13 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
778 picks · 357 bans
Disruptor
582 picks · 585 bans
Hoodwink
568 picks · 299 bans
Jakiro
477 picks · 296 bans
Dragon Knight
476 picks · 552 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 271 bans
Mars
457 picks · 744 bans
Puck
434 picks · 1115 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Heroic
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
Heroic 54%Team Tidebound 46%
The model gave 54% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 43:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinYuma
Juggernautshiro
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
PangolierEcho
Sand KingWisper
Marsniu
Skywrath MageScofield
Enchantressy`
ClockwerkKJ
PhoenixpLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 57%
Series resultHeroic 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1