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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 33 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 27 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 25 games
72%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 25 games
52%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 21 game
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
33%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 17 games
82%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
777 picks · 354 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
582 picks · 596 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
561 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
464 picks · 538 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
462 picks · 275 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 283 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
452 picks · 737 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 1123 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:21
Tundra Esports 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPure~
53% · 335 games52% · 307 games
Abaddongotthejuice
Abaddon
Earthshaker
Earthshakerbzm
52% · 277 games46% · 457 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner33
49% · 289 games48% · 414 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
54% · 260 games48% · 423 games
JakiroRiddys
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskWhitemon
51% · 477 games47% · 37 games
Spirit BreakerZayac
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1