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BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 51 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 38 games
61%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 32 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 29 games
69%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 29 games
72%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
79%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
74%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 17 games
82%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
775 picks · 354 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
585 picks · 598 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
560 picks · 299 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
460 picks · 538 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 276 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
456 picks · 280 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
450 picks · 737 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
430 picks · 1127 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total70% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
MOUZ 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciCrystallis
57% · 198 games46% · 231 game
Abaddongotthejuice
Abaddon
Slardar
SlardarMidOne
50% · 177 games44% · 66 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Undying
UndyingBOOM
46% · 137 games52% · 164 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockSeleri
51% · 306 games49% · 221 game
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeryamich
52% · 30 games53% · 166 games
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 70%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1