PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 2:3series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:3
MOUZwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
Tusksignature
rue · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 14 games
Jakiro
Panto · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 49 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
Pudge
yamich · 37 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 31 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 30 games
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 29 games
Marssignature
BOOM · 28 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
771 picks · 359 bans
Disruptor
591 picks · 608 bans
Hoodwink
560 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
457 picks · 532 bans
Mars
452 picks · 737 bans
Tusk
452 picks · 275 bans
Jakiro
445 picks · 277 bans
Puck
436 picks · 1135 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:25
Team Spirit 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 54:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYatoro
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Ember SpiritLarl
Shadow FiendMidOne
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
TidehunterBOOM
Snapfirerue
Jakiroyamich
DisruptorPanto
Naga SirenKaori
Game 2prediction missed23:29
Team Spirit 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYatoro
Troll WarlordCrystallis
AxeCollapse
LeshracMidOne
SlardarLarl
AbaddonBOOM
JakiroPanto
WarlockKaori
Rikirue
Tuskyamich
Game 3prediction missed15:20
Team Spirit 60%MOUZ 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYatoro
JuggernautCrystallis
MarsCollapse
Shadow FiendMidOne
Queen of PainLarl
TidehunterBOOM
Naga SirenPanto
WarlockKaori
Muertarue
Tuskyamich
Game 4prediction correct39:13
Team Spirit 59%MOUZ 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonYatoro
Dragon KnightCrystallis
UnderlordCollapse
Queen of PainMidOne
PangolierLarl
MarsBOOM
Bounty Hunterrue
WarlockKaori
Shadow DemonPanto
Clockwerkyamich
Game 5prediction missed16:32
Team Spirit 59%MOUZ 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYatoro
TimbersawBOOM
UnderlordCollapse
SlardarMidOne
Dragon KnightLarl
Monkey KingCrystallis
Ringmasterrue
Gyrocopteryamich
TuskPanto
JakiroKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultMOUZ 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5