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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 47 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 35 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 31 game
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 25 games
52%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 25 games
72%

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 36 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 33 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 31 game
55%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 28 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 28 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 22 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
59%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Pure~ · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
770 picks · 358 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
595 picks · 608 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
558 picks · 300 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
457 picks · 529 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
450 picks · 274 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 737 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
440 picks · 275 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
439 picks · 1140 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:31
MOUZ 49%BETBOOM TEAM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
40% · 94 games57% · 165 games
AbaddonKiritych
Abaddon
Huskar
HuskarMidOne
43% · 58 games53% · 71 game
Shadow FiendgpK~
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsBOOM
50% · 201 game57% · 150 games
SlardarMieRo
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockKaori
49% · 329 games48% · 274 games
JakiroSave-
Jakiro
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeryamich
58% · 25 games47% · 47 games
Nyx AssassinKataomi
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed34:16
MOUZ 48%BETBOOM TEAM 52%
The model gave 52% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
46% · 92 games44% · 65 games
JuggernautKiritych
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMidOne
51% · 161 game54% · 32 games
VipergpK~
Viper
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
49% · 312 games52% · 208 games
SlardarMieRo
Slardar
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
59% · 57 games52% · 164 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Warlock
WarlockKaori
46% · 217 games50% · 370 games
TuskKataomi
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed27:16
MOUZ 48%BETBOOM TEAM 52%
The model gave 52% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarCrystallis
51% · 32 games52% · 239 games
UrsaKiritych
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
50% · 371 game50% · 174 games
SlardargpK~
Slardar
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
53% · 192 games50% · 178 games
DoomMieRo
Doom
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
46% · 425 games48% · 345 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteryamich
49% · 321 game52% · 405 games
TuskSave-
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 55%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3