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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 16 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 14 games
79%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 27 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 26 games
62%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 23 games
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 22 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 22 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 20 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
767 picks · 359 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
597 picks · 609 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
558 picks · 300 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
457 picks · 529 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
450 picks · 273 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 735 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
439 picks · 273 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
439 picks · 1143 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:32
Team Spirit 57%Team Liquid 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
50% · 294 games53% · 148 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
51% · 159 games44% · 95 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
52% · 176 games45% · 381 game
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Pugna
Pugnarue
54% · 203 games62% · 161 game
Naga SirentOfu
Naga Siren
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
44% · 294 games45% · 341 game
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct19:11
Team Spirit 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
59% · 167 games42% · 69 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
50% · 311 games49% · 379 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Timbersaw
TimbersawCollapse
56% · 158 games47% · 151 game
SlardarAce
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterPanto
52% · 206 games45% · 187 games
SilencertOfu
Silencer
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonrue
55% · 207 games44% · 263 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct28:21
Team Spirit 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYatoro
48% · 299 games49% · 275 games
UrsamiCKe
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierCollapse
46% · 314 games52% · 280 games
TimbersawAce
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
46% · 261 game54% · 387 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Pugna
PugnaPanto
52% · 235 games52% · 313 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Ringmaster
Ringmasterrue
47% · 193 games53% · 47 games
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3