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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 23 games
43%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 20 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 19 games
74%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 19 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
76%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 17 games
71%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
DM · 16 games
56%

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 38 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 32 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 30 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 29 games
62%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 27 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 21 game
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
Pure~ · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
766 picks · 359 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
597 picks · 610 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
557 picks · 300 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
458 picks · 526 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 733 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
449 picks · 271 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
439 picks · 1146 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
438 picks · 270 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% PARIVISION
Head-to-head10 – 3
Model total54% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:23
PARIVISION 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
49% · 384 games49% · 271 game
AbaddonKiritych
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNo[o]ne
53% · 295 games46% · 287 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
55% · 200 games49% · 129 games
Primal BeastMieRo
Primal Beast
Slardar
Slardar9Class
46% · 180 games45% · 294 games
RingmasterSave-
Ringmaster
Bane
BaneDukalis
58% · 201 game50% · 279 games
DisruptorKataomi
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct16:8
PARIVISION 53%BETBOOM TEAM 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 25:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSatanic
50% · 278 games60% · 198 games
MarciKiritych
Marci
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
41% · 253 games51% · 131 game
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDM
52% · 237 games51% · 302 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
51% · 279 games47% · 269 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageDukalis
47% · 78 games50% · 225 games
HoodwinkSave-
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed7:25
PARIVISION 54%BETBOOM TEAM 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 47:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSatanic
52% · 282 games38% · 32 games
JuggernautKiritych
Juggernaut
Invoker
InvokerNo[o]ne
53% · 91 game42% · 178 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterDM
52% · 129 games51% · 133 games
SlardargpK~
Slardar
Chen
ChenDukalis
58% · 109 games50% · 136 games
Naga SirenKataomi
Naga Siren
Monkey King
Monkey King9Class
50% · 161 game49% · 293 games
MuertaSave-
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 54%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3