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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 46 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 35 games
60%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 30 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 30 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 27 games
63%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 24 games
50%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 26 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 24 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
81%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 20 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 18 games
44%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
766 picks · 359 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
596 picks · 616 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
555 picks · 300 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
458 picks · 522 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
450 picks · 268 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 730 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1158 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
429 picks · 267 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:16
MOUZ 50%Heroic 50%
The model gave 50% on Heroic — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
47% · 355 games47% · 259 games
AbaddonYuma
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMidOne
51% · 406 games58% · 44 games
ViperDavai
Viper
Mars
MarsBOOM
48% · 219 games53% · 373 games
Ember SpiritWisper
Ember Spirit
Warlock
WarlockKaori
48% · 339 games53% · 206 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeryamich
54% · 27 games46% · 464 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed35:25
MOUZ 48%Heroic 52%
The model gave 52% on Heroic — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
48% · 251 game54% · 327 games
Templar AssassinYuma
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
51% · 173 games50% · 339 games
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
45% · 251 game54% · 54 games
ViperDavai
Viper
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteryamich
50% · 232 games47% · 59 games
Spirit BreakerScofield
Spirit Breaker
Warlock
WarlockKaori
48% · 185 games53% · 313 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 51%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2