?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 46 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 34 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 30 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 26 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 25 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 24 games
50%

PARIVISION

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 22 games
41%
Chen
Chensignature
Dukalis · 21 game
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 21 game
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Satanic · 21 game
76%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
DM · 18 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Satanic · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
9Class · 17 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
760 picks · 359 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
605 picks · 620 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
550 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
458 picks · 265 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
456 picks · 521 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
446 picks · 1172 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
443 picks · 728 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
420 picks · 264 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:33
MOUZ 45%PARIVISION 55%
The model gave 55% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
53% · 232 games64% · 71 game
Faceless VoidSatanic
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
52% · 234 games41% · 264 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
48% · 85 games51% · 265 games
Centaur WarrunnerDM
Centaur Warrunner
Marci
Marciyamich
52% · 159 games48% · 210 games
Slardar9Class
Slardar
Warlock
WarlockKaori
42% · 236 games52% · 136 games
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed23:3
MOUZ 46%PARIVISION 54%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by MOUZ in 26:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciCrystallis
54% · 134 games48% · 169 games
MorphlingSatanic
Morphling
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
48% · 181 game48% · 326 games
Dragon KnightDM
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
53% · 285 games44% · 288 games
Queen of PainNo[o]ne
Queen of Pain
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeryamich
52% · 34 games53% · 152 games
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
Ancient Apparition
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
49% · 318 games66% · 17 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Game 3prediction correct5:30
MOUZ 46%PARIVISION 54%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 26:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarCrystallis
42% · 78 games53% · 138 games
AbaddonSatanic
Abaddon
Axe
AxeBOOM
42% · 144 games59% · 19 games
ViperNo[o]ne
Viper
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
52% · 184 games50% · 177 games
BeastmasterDM
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
51% · 241 game52% · 196 games
JakiroDukalis
Jakiro
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
49% · 69 games55% · 186 games
Monkey King9Class
Monkey King
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 58%
Series resultPARIVISION 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3