PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 17 games
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 31 game
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 26 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 20 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 20 games
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
757 picks · 358 bans
Disruptor
605 picks · 625 bans
Hoodwink
549 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
458 picks · 267 bans
Dragon Knight
455 picks · 518 bans
Puck
446 picks · 1181 bans
Mars
444 picks · 730 bans
Jakiro
418 picks · 263 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total72% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:32
Natus Vincere 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
KezPure~
Queen of PainNiku
Axe33
Dragon Knightpma
Ember Spiritbzm
Bounty HunterZayac
ChenWhitemon
RingmasterRiddys
BatriderAri
Game 2prediction correct14:36
Natus Vincere 38%Tundra Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
AbaddonPure~
Tidehunterpma
Axe33
KezNiku
Ember Spiritbzm
DisruptorRiddys
ChenWhitemon
Shadow DemonZayac
BatriderAri
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 72%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2