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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Heroicloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 22 games
36%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 21 game
52%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 19 games
47%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daze · 18 games
44%

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 25 games
52%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
79%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Yuma · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
758 picks · 357 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
604 picks · 625 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
547 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
457 picks · 268 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
452 picks · 512 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
446 picks · 1180 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
443 picks · 730 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
413 picks · 260 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:16
OG 36%Heroic 64%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNatsumi
45% · 119 games49% · 400 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerForce
45% · 289 games53% · 416 games
PuckWisper
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
44% · 404 games52% · 242 games
SlardarDavai
Slardar
Jakiro
JakiroSkem
52% · 327 games61% · 234 games
ChenKJ
Chen
Tusk
TuskTims
48% · 403 games50% · 250 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed34:14
OG 40%Heroic 60%
The model gave 60% on Heroic — the game was taken by OG in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNatsumi
46% · 237 games49% · 28 games
KezYuma
Kez
Windranger
WindrangerYopaj
41% · 56 games53% · 300 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Axe
AxeForce
40% · 81 game54% · 157 games
SlardarDavai
Slardar
Chen
ChenSkem
58% · 150 games46% · 175 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskTims
49% · 270 games57% · 134 games
Bounty HunterScofield
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction missed37:17
OG 41%Heroic 59%
The model gave 59% on Heroic — the game was taken by OG in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNatsumi
48% · 330 games48% · 160 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYopaj
57% · 296 games38% · 151 game
AxeDavai
Axe
Chen
ChenSkem
57% · 174 games58% · 43 games
VenomancerWisper
Venomancer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
56% · 99 games48% · 334 games
JakiroKJ
Jakiro
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTims
50% · 185 games46% · 396 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 70%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3