PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 31 game
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 26 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 20 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 20 games
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 23 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Echo · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
Queen of Painsignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
758 picks · 357 bans
Disruptor
604 picks · 625 bans
Hoodwink
547 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
457 picks · 268 bans
Dragon Knight
452 picks · 512 bans
Puck
446 picks · 1180 bans
Mars
443 picks · 730 bans
Jakiro
413 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:16
Tundra Esports 66%Team Tidebound 34%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaPure~
Terrorbladeshiro
Lycan33
Marsniu
Earthshakerbzm
SlardarEcho
MuertaAri
HoodwinkpLAnet
BaneWhitemon
Disruptory`
Game 2prediction correct32:22
Tundra Esports 68%Team Tidebound 32%
The model gave 68% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaPure~
Gyrocoptershiro
Huskarbzm
Dragon KnightEcho
Tidehunter33
Brewmasterniu
Bounty HunterAri
Cheny`
BaneWhitemon
DisruptorpLAnet
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2