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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 25 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 22 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 22 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 19 games
79%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
gotthejuice · 17 games
76%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 16 games
81%

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 45 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 45 games
67%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 33 games
61%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 30 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 24 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
757 picks · 355 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
605 picks · 627 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
547 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
456 picks · 269 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
450 picks · 509 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
444 picks · 1182 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
442 picks · 730 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
407 picks · 260 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 66%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:16
Natus Vincere 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
61% · 72 games46% · 186 games
SvenGhost
Sven
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNiku
47% · 209 games55% · 66 games
HuskarMidOne
Huskar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
53% · 231 game44% · 256 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
52% · 434 games49% · 290 games
Ringmasteryamich
Ringmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
51% · 161 game48% · 309 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed10:29
Natus Vincere 54%MOUZ 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
42% · 100 gameslittle data
Lone DruidGhost
Lone Druid
Underlord
Underlordpma
46% · 85 games57% · 140 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
53% · 233 games56% · 176 games
LeshracMidOne
Leshrac
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
47% · 367 games50% · 289 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Enchantress
EnchantressZayac
48% · 155 games49% · 335 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed25:43
Natus Vincere 55%MOUZ 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by MOUZ in 1:06:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinggotthejuice
54% · 155 games48% · 73 games
Shadow FiendMidOne
Shadow Fiend
Viper
ViperNiku
56% · 35 games47% · 172 games
Dragon KnightGhost
Dragon Knight
Undying
Undyingpma
47% · 124 games44% · 99 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRiddys
60% · 150 games44% · 135 games
JakiroKaori
Jakiro
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinZayac
54% · 50 games48% · 35 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 60%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3