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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Jakiro
Jakiro
Speeed · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Speeed · 3 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 2 games
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 2 games
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
YamSun · 2 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 2 games
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
RCY · 2 games
100%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 38 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 18 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 17 games
35%
Bane
Bane
Oli · 15 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
757 picks · 355 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
605 picks · 627 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
547 picks · 300 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
456 picks · 269 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
450 picks · 509 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
444 picks · 1182 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
442 picks · 730 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
407 picks · 260 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:10
GamerLegion 41%Yakult Brothers 59%
The model gave 59% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYamSun
55% · 170 games51% · 446 games
Dragon Knightflyfly
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainRCY
45% · 160 games55% · 35 games
ViperEmo
Viper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
51% · 203 games52% · 205 games
Axezeal
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroSpeeed
52% · 288 games50% · 212 games
WindrangerBoBoKa
Windranger
Tusk
TuskBignum
48% · 309 games44% · 232 games
Shadow Demon天命
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct23:25
GamerLegion 37%Yakult Brothers 63%
The model gave 63% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 54:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYamSun
46% · 65 games48% · 254 games
Ursaflyfly
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFayde
46% · 269 games48% · 33 games
Viperzeal
Viper
Chen
ChenSpeeed
59% · 145 games52% · 366 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierRCY
47% · 289 games51% · 53 games
Spirit Breaker天命
Spirit Breaker
Tusk
TuskBignum
51% · 339 games50% · 401 game
JakiroBoBoKa
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed30:5
GamerLegion 39%Yakult Brothers 61%
The model gave 61% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 38:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonYamSun
50% · 238 games54% · 320 games
Nature's Prophetflyfly
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckRCY
50% · 298 games41% · 24 games
Viperzeal
Viper
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
47% · 218 games49% · 293 games
Ember SpiritEmo
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenSpeeed
56% · 144 games45% · 104 games
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
Skywrath Mage
Snapfire
SnapfireBignum
56% · 268 games46% · 425 games
Jakiro天命
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 72%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3