PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Cobraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Tusksignature
GH · 31 game
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 29 games
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
Team Cobra
Hoodwink
Elmisho · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
Elmisho · 4 games
Juggernaut
K1 · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
payk · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Jakiro
MoOz · 3 games
Leshrac
PiPi · 3 games
Snapfire
Elmisho · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
756 picks · 355 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 626 bans
Hoodwink
545 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
454 picks · 267 bans
Dragon Knight
448 picks · 508 bans
Puck
445 picks · 1180 bans
Mars
441 picks · 728 bans
Jakiro
406 picks · 259 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 30%
Hero pool strength60% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:8
Nigma Galaxy 73%Team Cobra 27%
The model gave 73% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonTA2000
GyrocopterParker
PangolierNo!ob
Dragon KnightDarkMago
InvokerSumaiL
Axepayk
HoodwinkOmaR
LionElmisho
BaneTobi
SnapfireMichael
Game 2prediction correct41:14
Nigma Galaxy 75%Team Cobra 25%
The model gave 75% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidTA2000
JuggernautParker
InvokerSumaiL
Sand KingDarkMago
Primal BeastNo!ob
Pangolierpayk
MuertaOmaR
HoodwinkElmisho
BaneTobi
TuskMichael
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 88%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2