PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
Tusk
Boxi · 27 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 25 games
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
Marcisignature
Boxi · 21 game
Snapfire
Boxi · 20 games
Axeoften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 22 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 22 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 21 game
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 21 game
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daze · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
756 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
607 picks · 626 bans
Hoodwink
545 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
452 picks · 267 bans
Dragon Knight
448 picks · 507 bans
Puck
444 picks · 1179 bans
Mars
441 picks · 728 bans
Jakiro
404 picks · 259 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:10
Team Liquid 62%OG 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocoptermiCKe
TimbersawForce
LycanAce
UrsaNatsumi
Ember SpiritNisha
Storm SpiritYopaj
WindrangerBoxi
MarciTims
TusktOfu
JakiroSkem
Game 2prediction correct37:5
Team Liquid 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 21:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarcimiCKe
Monkey KingYopaj
TidehunterAce
WindrangerNatsumi
PuckNisha
BristlebackForce
JakirotOfu
TuskSkem
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Shadow DemonTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 72%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2