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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedwin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 17 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
86%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 12 games
83%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 12 games
83%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
niche · 12 games
67%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
40%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 9 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
755 picks · 354 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 627 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
544 picks · 299 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
451 picks · 268 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
448 picks · 504 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
444 picks · 1178 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
440 picks · 726 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
400 picks · 258 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:37
Most Wanted 65%Team Lynx 35%
The model gave 65% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 42:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter423
50% · 300 games49% · 310 games
Dragon Knight7jesu
Dragon Knight
Viper
Viperniche
61% · 36 games54% · 217 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Undying
UndyingfortniteMan
48% · 127 games43% · 280 games
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Pangolier
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRein
52% · 126 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPonlo
49% · 218 games
Game 2prediction correct35:19
Most Wanted 65%Team Lynx 35%
The model gave 65% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meepo423
57% · 16 games53% · 238 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetniche
57% · 85 games51% · 250 games
MarsVladikTheHtiviy
Mars
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerfortniteMan
44% · 148 games46% · 135 games
Invokermellojul
Invoker
Jakiro
JakiroRein
49% · 150 games
Tusk
TuskPonlo
48% · 224 games
Game 3prediction correct32:22
Most Wanted 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursa423
52% · 103 games52% · 177 games
Abaddon7jesu
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
54% · 149 games48% · 132 games
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Slardar
SlardarfortniteMan
51% · 72 games40% · 133 games
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Axe
Dazzle
DazzleRein
57% · 76 games
Lion
LionPonlo
53% · 42 games
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 76%
Series resultMost Wanted 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3