PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Axesignature
33 · 30 games
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 25 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 20 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 20 games
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 25 games
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
Bane
KJ · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
755 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
608 picks · 626 bans
Hoodwink
544 picks · 299 bans
Tusk
449 picks · 267 bans
Dragon Knight
447 picks · 500 bans
Puck
441 picks · 1179 bans
Mars
438 picks · 725 bans
Jakiro
398 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total68% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:40
Tundra Esports 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 36:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckPure~
AbaddonYuma
Bristlebackbzm
Primal BeastDavai
Slardar33
EnigmaWisper
PugnaWhitemon
Nyx AssassinScofield
RubickAri
EnchantressKJ
Game 2prediction missed15:39
Tundra Esports 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolierbzm
AbaddonYuma
Dragon KnightPure~
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Axe33
ViperDavai
Shadow DemonWhitemon
TinyScofield
Bounty HunterAri
GyrocopterKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 68%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2