?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 30 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 24 games
54%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
68%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 19 games
58%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Saksa · 17 games
53%

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 22 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 21 game
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 18 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daze · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
755 picks · 352 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
607 picks · 629 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
544 picks · 299 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
446 picks · 269 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
445 picks · 499 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
442 picks · 1181 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
438 picks · 723 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
395 picks · 254 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 49%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:47
Tundra Esports 71%OG 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 58:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezPure~
54% · 31 game54% · 132 games
UrsaNatsumi
Ursa
Invoker
Invokerbzm
45% · 115 games53% · 161 game
AbaddonForce
Abaddon
Doom
Doom33
51% · 206 games50% · 80 games
Primal BeastYopaj
Primal Beast
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAri
50% · 105 games46% · 180 games
JakiroSkem
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorWhitemon
48% · 260 games51% · 164 games
Shadow DemonTims
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct32:19
Tundra Esports 71%OG 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezPure~
47% · 11 games52% · 196 games
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand King33
45% · 147 games55% · 137 games
SlardarYopaj
Slardar
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
46% · 332 games60% · 97 games
Naga SirenSkem
Naga Siren
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
48% · 234 games49% · 84 games
UndyingForce
Undying
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterAri
55% · 77 games46% · 287 games
BatriderTims
Batrider
Game 3prediction missed12:28
Tundra Esports 72%OG 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
58% · 218 games50% · 416 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Doom
Doom33
51% · 216 games41% · 355 games
Queen of PainYopaj
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
49% · 409 games51% · 276 games
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockWhitemon
47% · 249 games55% · 164 games
Naga SirenSkem
Naga Siren
Batrider
BatriderAri
51% · 396 games46% · 277 games
Shadow DemonTims
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 85%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3