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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 25 games
52%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 22 games
59%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 18 games
78%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 16 games
56%
Bane
Bane
KJ · 16 games
44%

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
CatYou · 18 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 13 games
62%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 10 games
20%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 9 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulu · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RedPanda · 9 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
ButterflyEffect · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
753 picks · 352 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
609 picks · 630 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
543 picks · 298 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
445 picks · 265 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1181 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 493 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
433 picks · 721 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
390 picks · 250 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Heroic 78%Roar Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightWisper
46% · 343 games52% · 250 games
Templar AssassinUlu
Templar Assassin
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
49% · 327 games67% · 30 games
ViperButterflyEffect
Viper
Axe
AxeDavai
46% · 143 games53% · 156 games
Primal BeastJT-
Primal Beast
Pugna
PugnaKJ
54% · 250 games51% · 302 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageScofield
44% · 50 games47% · 375 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct33:24
Heroic 79%Roar Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 40:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYuma
51% · 130 games49% · 340 games
PangolierJT-
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainWisper
39% · 323 games55% · 165 games
MarciUlu
Marci
Axe
AxeDavai
48% · 160 games44% · 251 game
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
50% · 254 games55% · 212 games
WarlockRedPanda
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
51% · 192 games60% · 91 game
Nyx AssassinCatYou
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 93%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2