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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 55 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 51 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 50 games
66%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 44 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 42 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 38 games
42%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
753 picks · 352 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
609 picks · 630 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
543 picks · 298 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
445 picks · 265 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1181 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 493 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
433 picks · 721 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
390 picks · 250 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total78% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:35
Runa Team 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonnesfeer
46% · 135 games50% · 262 games
Dragon Knight7jesu
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand Kingnicky`cool
56% · 143 games48% · 273 games
Storm Spiritmellojul
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerAlberkaaa
51% · 72 games45% · 53 games
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonqueezy
57% · 142 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
52% · 96 games
Game 2prediction correct35:9
Runa Team 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svennesfeer
43% · 107 games55% · 109 games
Sand Kingmellojul
Sand King
Primal Beast
Primal Beastnicky`cool
50% · 132 games49% · 163 games
Abaddon7jesu
Abaddon
Doom
DoomAlberkaaa
55% · 172 games50% · 290 games
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Pangolier
Chen
ChenHduo
53% · 113 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magequeezy
42% · 38 games
Game 3prediction missed20:40
Runa Team 67%Team Lynx 33%
The model gave 67% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
54% · 179 games56% · 352 games
Nature's Prophet7jesu
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierAlberkaaa
48% · 218 games48% · 200 games
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopternesfeer
48% · 120 games50% · 195 games
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Slardar
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magequeezy
43% · 36 games
Tusk
TuskHduo
49% · 194 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 78%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3