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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 22 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Echo · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
36%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
NothingToSay · 11 games
64%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
shiro · 11 games
55%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 35 games
51%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 18 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 16 games
31%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
47%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magesignature
flyfly · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
753 picks · 352 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
609 picks · 632 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
542 picks · 298 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
443 picks · 264 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1182 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 489 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
432 picks · 720 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 250 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 44%
Hero pool strength50% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total76% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:22
Team Tidebound 66%Yakult Brothers 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 46:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
52% · 254 games51% · 396 games
Dragon Knightflyfly
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingEcho
61% · 223 games53% · 415 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Mars
Marsniu
46% · 272 games45% · 381 game
Pangolierzeal
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
45% · 333 games49% · 66 games
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
Skywrath Mage
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
53% · 392 games47% · 216 games
Enchantress天命
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct24:18
Team Tidebound 67%Yakult Brothers 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 51:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
47% · 273 games46% · 72 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEcho
48% · 243 games55% · 120 games
Shadow FiendEmo
Shadow Fiend
Primal Beast
Primal Beastniu
44% · 177 games51% · 448 games
Pangolierzeal
Pangolier
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
43% · 80 games57% · 167 games
ChenBoBoKa
Chen
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
52% · 222 games55% · 188 games
Clockwerk天命
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 76%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2