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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 30 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 23 games
52%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 22 games
68%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 18 games
56%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 16 games
38%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 31 game
74%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 27 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
749 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 635 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
542 picks · 294 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
441 picks · 262 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
440 picks · 1181 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 484 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
430 picks · 714 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 250 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total76% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Tundra Esports 65%Nigma Galaxy 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycan33
55% · 159 games51% · 69 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerPure~
37% · 59 games56% · 310 games
BeastmasterSumaiL
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
41% · 204 games59% · 296 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Batrider
BatriderAri
51% · 384 games50% · 186 games
EnchantressTobi
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
45% · 257 games51% · 202 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct27:10
Tundra Esports 63%Nigma Galaxy 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciPure~
50% · 197 games41% · 53 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
55% · 125 games55% · 140 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Slardar
Slardarbzm
50% · 126 games43% · 298 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Muerta
MuertaAri
49% · 225 games50% · 309 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
49% · 253 games56% · 126 games
BaneTobi
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 76%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2