European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 46 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 41 game
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 30 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 28 games
Underlord
Nefrit · 27 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 10 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Pucksignature
mellojul · 7 games
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
749 picks · 350 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 635 bans
Hoodwink
542 picks · 292 bans
Tusk
440 picks · 263 bans
Puck
439 picks · 1184 bans
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 483 bans
Mars
430 picks · 714 bans
Jakiro
386 picks · 250 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total82% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:45
Zero Tenacity 69%Team Lynx 31%
The model gave 69% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 56:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaKami
Juggernaut7jesu
PuckWorick
Batridermellojul
TimbersawNefrit
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
TuskdEsire
DazzleSe
Game 2prediction correct34:32
Zero Tenacity 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 55:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonKami
Sand Kingmellojul
Queen of PainWorick
Dragon Knight7jesu
UnderlordNefrit
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
DisruptorSe
GrimstrokedEsire
Game 3prediction missed21:35
Zero Tenacity 67%Team Lynx 33%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 42:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritWorick
Juggernaut7jesu
Faceless VoidKami
Batridermellojul
BristlebackNefrit
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
DisruptorSe
Shadow DemondEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 82%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3