?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 13 games
62%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 12 games
83%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Miposhka · 12 games
67%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 34 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 20 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 18 games
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 16 games
31%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
47%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
BEYOND · 14 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
748 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 635 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
541 picks · 292 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1183 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
438 picks · 262 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
437 picks · 479 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 713 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
385 picks · 248 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total91% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:35
Team Spirit 77%Yakult Brothers 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 59:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
48% · 195 games52% · 80 games
Weaverflyfly
Weaver
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
39% · 114 games52% · 229 games
SlardarEmo
Slardar
Pangolier
PangolierCollapse
48% · 219 games60% · 189 games
Tidehunterzeal
Tidehunter
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
52% · 175 games40% · 78 games
Skywrath MageBoBoKa
Skywrath Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
45% · 89 games60% · 216 games
Naga Siren天命
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct25:7
Team Spirit 79%Yakult Brothers 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 19:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonYatoro
51% · 284 games48% · 53 games
Huskarflyfly
Huskar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
43% · 195 games46% · 278 games
PuckEmo
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
53% · 268 games54% · 175 games
Marcizeal
Marci
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
51% · 86 games49% · 296 games
Batrider天命
Batrider
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterrue
53% · 132 games52% · 163 games
ChenBoBoKa
Chen
Game 3prediction correct36:15
Team Spirit 79%Yakult Brothers 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
51% · 62 games46% · 37 games
Lunaflyfly
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
54% · 218 games47% · 255 games
Marszeal
Mars
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
51% · 129 games52% · 319 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Tusk
Tuskrue
50% · 371 game50% · 201 game
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaPanto
53% · 241 game46% · 209 games
Phoenix天命
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 91%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3