?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Royal Jellyloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Royal Jelly

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
25%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
50%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 3 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Stojkov · 3 games
33%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Miyaoo · 3 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 3 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
0%

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 55 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 52 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 48 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 46 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 42 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 38 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
746 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 635 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
540 picks · 290 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
438 picks · 261 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 1181 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 477 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
428 picks · 711 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
384 picks · 247 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:25
Royal Jelly 29%Runa Team 71%
The model gave 71% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 28:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
PudgeMiyaoo
49% · 79 games53% · 98 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Slardar
SlardarStojkov
47% · 194 games47% · 55 games
Void Spiritnicky`cool
Void Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterani-san
52% · 138 games49% · 99 games
Dragon KnightAlberkaaa
Dragon Knight
58% · 63 games
ChenHduo
Chen
48% · 96 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct11:37
Royal Jelly 28%Runa Team 72%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
52% · 446 games53% · 155 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarMiyaoo
53% · 231 game47% · 78 games
Void Spiritnicky`cool
Void Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageani-san
43% · 77 games49% · 208 games
PangolierAlberkaaa
Pangolier
45% · 155 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
56% · 158 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 86%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2