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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 45 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 35 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 32 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 28 games
39%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 27 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 26 games
54%

Runa Team

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 55 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 52 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 48 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 40 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 38 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
743 picks · 349 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
605 picks · 637 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
535 picks · 286 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
433 picks · 1187 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
431 picks · 261 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 464 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 704 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
379 picks · 244 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 8
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:25
Zero Tenacity 53%Runa Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 50:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciKami
53% · 179 games47% · 182 games
Abaddonnesfeer
Abaddon
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
37% · 59 games60% · 151 game
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWorick
52% · 302 games62% · 206 games
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Bristleback
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
44% · 240 games48% · 223 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedEsire
47% · 40 games44% · 58 games
LichHduo
Lich
Game 2prediction correct29:27
Zero Tenacity 53%Runa Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
45% · 351 game54% · 264 games
Gyrocopternesfeer
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
50% · 208 games62% · 62 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
43% · 102 games55% · 128 games
TidehunterAlberkaaa
Tidehunter
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
44% · 274 games49% · 222 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokedEsire
53% · 46 games51% · 305 games
TuskHduo
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2