CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 53 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 52 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 46 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 39 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 37 games
4Pirates
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 39 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 38 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 36 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Dazzleoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Disruptoroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
740 picks · 350 bans
Disruptor
605 picks · 640 bans
Hoodwink
530 picks · 278 bans
Puck
436 picks · 1188 bans
Mars
428 picks · 701 bans
Dragon Knight
426 picks · 456 bans
Tusk
425 picks · 267 bans
Jakiro
375 picks · 241 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head7 – 5
Model total76% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:24
Runa Team 64%4Pirates 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopternesfeer
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
SlardarAlberkaaa
Broodmotherzvёzd
Huskarnicky`cool
Batriderariel
Hoodwinkqueezy
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
TuskHduo
Game 2prediction missed13:26
Runa Team 68%4Pirates 32%
The model gave 68% on Runa Team — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 22:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordnesfeer
Templar Assassinzvёzd
Slardarnicky`cool
PangolierNattyNarwhal
HuskarAlberkaaa
Jakiroariel
Shadow Demonqueezy
TuskPERDAN4IK
DisruptorHduo
Game 3prediction correct33:8
Runa Team 68%4Pirates 32%
The model gave 68% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 22:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pucknicky`cool
Troll Warlordzvёzd
Weavernesfeer
PangolierNattyNarwhal
SlardarAlberkaaa
Hoodwinkariel
WarlockHduo
TuskPERDAN4IK
Snapfirequeezy
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 76%
Series resultRuna Team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3