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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
64%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
52%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Bb3px · 19 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 19 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%

Runa Team

Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 52 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 51 game
63%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 49 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 46 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 37 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
740 picks · 350 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
602 picks · 639 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
525 picks · 278 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 1184 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 700 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 454 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
423 picks · 269 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
371 picks · 238 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total53% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:34
HULIGANI 48%Runa Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
53% · 445 games47% · 322 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Enigma
EnigmaBb3px
55% · 144 games46% · 259 games
MarsAlberkaaa
Mars
Huskar
Huskarerase
58% · 70 games46% · 372 games
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
52% · 329 games47% · 246 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tuskslimeyao
52% · 480 games44% · 269 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed26:19
HULIGANI 47%Runa Team 53%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusav1olent-
53% · 218 games48% · 198 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
49% · 370 games61% · 130 games
TidehunterAlberkaaa
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsBb3px
46% · 284 games49% · 315 games
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
51% · 205 games44% · 255 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
44% · 55 games54% · 234 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed38:22
HULIGANI 50%Runa Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Runa Team — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladev1olent-
53% · 345 games52% · 150 games
Lifestealernesfeer
Lifestealer
Monkey King
Monkey Kingerase
56% · 240 games49% · 359 games
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsBb3px
48% · 299 games47% · 236 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaRESPECT
51% · 223 games48% · 327 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Disruptor
Disruptorslimeyao
49% · 319 games47% · 354 games
JakiroHduo
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 53%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3