European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 43 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 39 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 34 games
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 27 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 25 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 23 games
Tiny
Niku · 16 games
Snapfire
Zayac · 15 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 13 games
Puckoften banned
Niku · 12 games
Warlock
Riddys · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
739 picks · 350 bans
Disruptor
602 picks · 640 bans
Hoodwink
524 picks · 277 bans
Puck
435 picks · 1186 bans
Mars
425 picks · 700 bans
Tusk
423 picks · 269 bans
Dragon Knight
422 picks · 453 bans
Jakiro
371 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total86% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Zero Tenacity 72%Natus Vincere Junior 28%
The model gave 72% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EnigmaNefrit
Tinkergbc
PuckWorick
UrsaonLiTaL
Dragon KnightKami
Night Stalkerkrol9ash
Shadow DemonSe
SnapfireHyugadoto
Primal BeastdEsire
Spirit BreakerGothic-
Game 2prediction correct44:29
Zero Tenacity 75%Natus Vincere Junior 25%
The model gave 75% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciKami
GyrocopteronLiTaL
BristlebackNefrit
Puckgbc
Sand KingWorick
Marskrol9ash
HoodwinkdEsire
Skywrath MageGothic-
SnapfireSe
DisruptorHyugadoto
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 86%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2