DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundwin 3:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 3:2
eSpoiledloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tidebound
Disruptoroften banned
y` · 23 games
Beastmastersignature
Faith_bian · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
shiro · 13 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 12 games
Pucksignature
Echo · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Faith_bian · 12 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
pLAnet · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
NothingToSay · 11 games
eSpoiled
Snapfiresignature
Wein · 45 games
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 29 games
Tusk
Wein · 29 games
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 25 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 24 games
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
Wein · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
735 picks · 348 bans
Disruptor
602 picks · 637 bans
Hoodwink
518 picks · 273 bans
Puck
435 picks · 1176 bans
Mars
423 picks · 693 bans
Tusk
420 picks · 268 bans
Dragon Knight
414 picks · 444 bans
Jakiro
363 picks · 231 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total77% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:33
Team Tidebound 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordshiro
Gyrocopterssnovv1
PuckEcho
Void Spiritdualrazee
Marsniu
Night StalkerCorrupted
GrimstrokepLAnet
SnapfireWein
Pugnay`
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct37:7
Team Tidebound 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinshiro
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Sand KingEcho
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
Bristlebackniu
Pangolierdualrazee
Naga Sireny`
Elder Titanasdekor_r
HoodwinkpLAnet
RingmasterWein
Game 3prediction correct26:16
Team Tidebound 64%eSpoiled 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 47:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusashiro
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Storm SpiritEcho
BeastmasterCorrupted
Pangolierniu
Dragon Knightssnovv1
Shadow Demony`
Snapfireasdekor_r
WindrangerpLAnet
TuskWein
Game 4prediction missed14:23
Team Tidebound 67%eSpoiled 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mageshiro
Terrorbladessnovv1
Bristlebackniu
Puckdualrazee
Void SpiritEcho
Primal BeastCorrupted
WindrangerpLAnet
Jakiroasdekor_r
Phoenixy`
Shadow DemonWein
Game 5prediction correct34:16
Team Tidebound 67%eSpoiled 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 1:01:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherEcho
Morphlingssnovv1
Ursashiro
Puckdualrazee
Primal Beastniu
MarsCorrupted
RubickpLAnet
SnapfireWein
Jakiroy`
Disruptorasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 77%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5