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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 33 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 27 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 24 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 22 games
41%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
64%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 21 game
52%

Runa Team

Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 50 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 49 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 49 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 44 games
66%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 38 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
733 picks · 348 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 636 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
516 picks · 269 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1174 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 694 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
418 picks · 269 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
412 picks · 441 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
363 picks · 228 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:20
Passion UA 48%Runa Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallize
49% · 336 games47% · 284 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterBatyuk
53% · 146 games46% · 215 games
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Ember Spirit
Venomancer
VenomancerMoonlight
58% · 36 games45% · 184 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
53% · 384 games49% · 274 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
56% · 79 games47% · 24 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct41:55
Passion UA 48%Runa Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMoonlight
56% · 293 games43% · 52 games
Weavernesfeer
Weaver
Mars
MarsBatyuk
50% · 289 games48% · 275 games
PangolierAlberkaaa
Pangolier
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallize
43% · 41 game53% · 139 games
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Sand King
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
54% · 392 games48% · 324 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
54% · 84 games45% · 309 games
TuskHduo
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed32:11
Passion UA 48%Runa Team 52%
The model gave 52% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Passion UA in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMoonlight
53% · 184 games54% · 179 games
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Templar Assassin
Venomancer
VenomancerBatyuk
59% · 35 games44% · 144 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
53% · 163 games47% · 44 games
Huskarnicky`cool
Huskar
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
52% · 55 games48% · 37 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Lion
LionQBFY
47% · 154 games45% · 187 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 55%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3