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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Most Wantedloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 44 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 29 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 29 games
55%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
56%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 24 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 24 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 23 games
39%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%

Most Wanted

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 10 games
80%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 10 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
niche · 9 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Rein · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
732 picks · 348 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
605 picks · 636 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
516 picks · 269 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1177 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
423 picks · 696 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
420 picks · 270 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 440 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
362 picks · 228 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:27
eSpoiled 57%Most Wanted 43%
The model gave 57% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 26:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienddualrazee
48% · 144 games53% · 147 games
Dragon Knight423
Dragon Knight
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordssnovv1
50% · 109 games50% · 119 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
42% · 158 games51% · 141 game
MarcifortniteMan
Marci
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
42% · 132 games61% · 90 games
ChenRein
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerWein
52% · 40 games55% · 86 games
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct22:7
eSpoiled 53%Most Wanted 47%
The model gave 53% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 26:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightssnovv1
46% · 224 games42% · 19 games
Meepo423
Meepo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCorrupted
48% · 102 games53% · 161 game
Leshracniche
Leshrac
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
47% · 124 games53% · 182 games
DoomfortniteMan
Doom
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
47% · 128 games60% · 202 games
ChenRein
Chen
Snapfire
SnapfireWein
40% · 187 games53% · 201 game
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct36:22
eSpoiled 54%Most Wanted 46%
The model gave 54% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 38:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterssnovv1
53% · 200 games51% · 538 games
Puckniche
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierCorrupted
51% · 286 games48% · 46 games
Bloodseeker423
Bloodseeker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritdualrazee
56% · 244 games49% · 303 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Batrider
BatriderWein
41% · 236 games52% · 307 games
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
49% · 326 games50% · 98 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 64%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3