European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
Slardaroften banned
StoneBank · 8 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Timbersawoften banned
fortniteMan · 7 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 6 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 13 games
Tusk
Fernans · 13 games
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 12 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
732 picks · 348 bans
Disruptor
605 picks · 636 bans
Hoodwink
516 picks · 266 bans
Puck
432 picks · 1176 bans
Mars
421 picks · 695 bans
Tusk
420 picks · 270 bans
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 437 bans
Jakiro
362 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 34%
Hero pool strength57% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed1:3
Team Lynx 47%Inner Circle 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 52:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerVladikTheHtiviy
MarsNorma
Gyrocopter7jesu
Morphlingyowaai
Puckmellojul
Shadow Demonxsvampire
51% · 144 games
Sand Kingспортик
Game 2prediction correct25:32
Team Lynx 47%Inner Circle 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 54:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter7jesu
Morphlingyowaai
Puckmellojul
Sand Kingспортик
DawnbreakerVladikTheHtiviy
MarsInfernal
50% · 180 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Game 3prediction missed25:7
Team Lynx 49%Inner Circle 51%
The model gave 51% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 26:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa7jesu
Svenyowaai
Storm Spiritmellojul
Queen of Painспортик
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Primal BeastNorma
44% · 141 game
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 59%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3