CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 38 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 38 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 36 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 33 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
Disruptoroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Dazzleoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
Runa Team
Batridersignature
queezy · 50 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 49 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 49 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 44 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 39 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 38 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
732 picks · 348 bans
Disruptor
603 picks · 635 bans
Hoodwink
515 picks · 266 bans
Puck
431 picks · 1175 bans
Mars
421 picks · 694 bans
Tusk
420 picks · 270 bans
Dragon Knight
410 picks · 437 bans
Jakiro
362 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% Runa Team
Head-to-head5 – 6
Model total75% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:46
4Pirates 35%Runa Team 65%
The model gave 65% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 30:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal BeastNattyNarwhal
Morphlingnesfeer
Gyrocopterbashka
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Doomмистер мораль
BristlebackAlberkaaa
Batriderariel
Hoodwinkqueezy
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
ClockwerkHduo
Game 2prediction correct
4Pirates 25%Runa Team 75%
The model gave 75% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 75%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2