?
arrow_backBack to match
CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Most Wantedloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 42 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 36 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 32 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 31 game
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 25 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirage · 23 games
61%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 11 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 10 games
90%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 10 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 7 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
niche · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Rein · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
728 picks · 348 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
600 picks · 634 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
507 picks · 261 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
427 picks · 1175 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 696 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
420 picks · 262 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
406 picks · 428 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
358 picks · 220 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 68%
Hero pool strength56% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:39
Zero Tenacity 51%Most Wanted 49%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKami
47% · 197 games52% · 305 games
Nature's Prophetniche
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawNefrit
53% · 210 games54% · 444 games
Batrider423
Batrider
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
50% · 362 games46% · 170 games
SlardarfortniteMan
Slardar
Tiny
TinydEsire
46% · 483 games52% · 239 games
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Enchantress
EnchantressSe
51% · 218 games49% · 312 games
ClockwerkRein
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed23:5
Zero Tenacity 49%Most Wanted 51%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 13:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
52% · 54 games47% · 275 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
55% · 209 games49% · 226 games
Monkey King423
Monkey King
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
49% · 294 games50% · 169 games
MarcifortniteMan
Marci
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
46% · 333 games48% · 397 games
SnapfirePonlo
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorSe
47% · 304 games58% · 127 games
ChenRein
Chen
Game 3prediction correct
Zero Tenacity 54%Most Wanted 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 54%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3