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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 48 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 48 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 47 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 42 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 37 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
70%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
723 picks · 347 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
598 picks · 632 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
505 picks · 258 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
422 picks · 1175 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
417 picks · 695 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
416 picks · 260 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 420 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
357 picks · 215 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Runa Team
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total72% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Runa Team 72%Kalmychata 28%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Runa Team 72%Kalmychata 28%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 72%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2