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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 38 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 38 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 33 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 33 games
36%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
29%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
54%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
61%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 20 games
35%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 15 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 14 games
21%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
46%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
54%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
MaTson · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
721 picks · 347 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
596 picks · 633 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
503 picks · 257 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
419 picks · 1174 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
417 picks · 257 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
415 picks · 693 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 417 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 397 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total66% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:14
4Pirates 59%Level UP 41%
The model gave 59% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
51% · 232 games48% · 259 games
PuckMaTson
Puck
Spectre
Spectrezvёzd
49% · 23 games52% · 63 games
Faceless VoidNikobaby
Faceless Void
Mars
Marsмистер мораль
47% · 277 games52% · 118 games
SlardarpJonn
Slardar
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerariel
45% · 29 games49% · 235 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorPERDAN4IK
53% · 306 games51% · 192 games
Pugnakur0patbI4
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct38:15
4Pirates 61%Level UP 39%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 27:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNattyNarwhal
55% · 325 games46% · 257 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Ursa
Ursazvёzd
54% · 289 games50% · 278 games
GyrocopterNikobaby
Gyrocopter
Mars
Marsмистер мораль
46% · 307 games48% · 347 games
PangolierpJonn
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
49% · 383 games47% · 401 game
TuskGilgir
Tusk
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterariel
52% · 149 games53% · 170 games
Enchantresskur0patbI4
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 66%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2