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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 26 games
46%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 21 game
62%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 19 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 18 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 18 games
72%
Mars
Marssignature
Bb3px · 18 games
67%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 28 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 15 games
47%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
721 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
595 picks · 633 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
503 picks · 257 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
417 picks · 1174 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
417 picks · 257 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
414 picks · 693 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
402 picks · 415 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 396 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:32
HULIGANI 53%Pipsqueak+4 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Propheterase
54% · 260 games49% · 222 games
GyrocopterNande
Gyrocopter
Sven
Svenv1olent-
44% · 217 games51% · 287 games
PuckEkki
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBb3px
43% · 161 game47% · 218 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterslimeyao
53% · 167 games59% · 172 games
ChenKidaro
Chen
Disruptor
DisruptorRESPECT
48% · 268 games52% · 174 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed20:31
HULIGANI 51%Pipsqueak+4 49%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 38:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerv1olent-
59% · 29 games53% · 199 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordBb3px
44% · 87 games52% · 183 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Slardar
Slardarerase
50% · 165 games52% · 127 games
MarsPalantimos
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
49% · 345 games43% · 118 games
Queen of PainEkki
Queen of Pain
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
49% · 52 games55% · 51 game
DazzleKidaro
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 56%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2