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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 28 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Xakoda · 25 games
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 24 games
38%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 22 games
41%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mirele · 22 games
64%

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 37 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 36 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 33 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 33 games
36%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 31 game
61%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
29%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 24 games
54%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
721 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
597 picks · 631 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
503 picks · 257 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
417 picks · 1175 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
417 picks · 255 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
414 picks · 693 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
401 picks · 415 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
357 picks · 396 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total59% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
Yellow Submarine 54%4Pirates 46%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 42:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbottega
47% · 383 games47% · 197 games
Ursaмистер мораль
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
55% · 271 game50% · 276 games
Gyrocopterzvёzd
Gyrocopter
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterprblms
55% · 117 games51% · 115 games
SlardarNattyNarwhal
Slardar
Enigma
EnigmaInfernal
49% · 108 games51% · 294 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerHtrd
44% · 163 games51% · 160 games
EnchantressPERDAN4IK
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct34:10
Yellow Submarine 54%4Pirates 46%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbottega
56% · 281 game49% · 273 games
Terrorbladezvёzd
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMirele
47% · 336 games44% · 191 game
Marsмистер мораль
Mars
Slardar
SlardarInfernal
47% · 165 games46% · 306 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterprblms
57% · 135 games50% · 268 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Silencer
SilencerHtrd
51% · 203 games57% · 82 games
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 59%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2