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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Royal Jellywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Royal Jelly

Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
100%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Stojkov · 2 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ani-san · 2 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
0%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Miyaoo · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stojkov · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
720 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
597 picks · 631 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
501 picks · 257 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
417 picks · 255 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
415 picks · 1173 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 692 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
400 picks · 412 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 396 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:34
Kalmychata 78%Royal Jelly 22%
The model gave 78% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Royal Jelly in 33:09.
Game 2prediction missed8:25
Kalmychata 78%Royal Jelly 22%
The model gave 78% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Royal Jelly in 26:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 78%
Series resultRoyal Jelly 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2