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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
eSpoiledwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 7 games
86%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 6 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 6 games
67%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Rein · 5 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 5 games
80%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 43 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 29 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 27 games
52%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 25 games
56%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 23 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
asdekor_r · 23 games
39%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 23 games
78%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
719 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
596 picks · 630 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
501 picks · 257 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
415 picks · 255 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
414 picks · 1172 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
412 picks · 690 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
399 picks · 410 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 396 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:21
Most Wanted 45%eSpoiled 55%
The model gave 55% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
50% · 385 games43% · 410 games
Dragon Knightssnovv1
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey Kingniche
56% · 322 games49% · 170 games
Shadow Fienddualrazee
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterfortniteMan
48% · 441 game50% · 491 game
PangolierCorrupted
Pangolier
Ringmaster
RingmasterPonlo
51% · 245 games57% · 185 games
Chenasdekor_r
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroRein
47% · 358 games49% · 495 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed26:6
Most Wanted 46%eSpoiled 54%
The model gave 54% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 24:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckniche
50% · 328 games51% · 111 games
Troll Warlordssnovv1
Troll Warlord
Terrorblade
Terrorblade423
46% · 302 games46% · 373 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Marci
MarcifortniteMan
55% · 193 games50% · 146 games
AxeCorrupted
Axe
Enchantress
EnchantressRein
50% · 189 games56% · 179 games
Naga Sirenasdekor_r
Naga Siren
Ringmaster
RingmasterPonlo
49% · 141 game47% · 344 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct6:26
Most Wanted 45%eSpoiled 55%
The model gave 55% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 33:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon423
51% · 274 games55% · 335 games
Gyrocopterssnovv1
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painniche
42% · 295 games53% · 471 game
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierfortniteMan
46% · 491 game50% · 199 games
SlardarCorrupted
Slardar
Disruptor
DisruptorPonlo
49% · 342 games55% · 388 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroRein
46% · 469 games53% · 478 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 58%
Series resulteSpoiled 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3